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KMID : 0857020020170010105
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Kosin Medical Journal
2002 Volume.17 No. 1 p.105 ~ p.113
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Estimation of Lifetime and Age Conditional Probabilities of Developing Cancer of Reproductive Organs in Women of Daegu Metropolitan Area
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Kim Sung-Han
Kim Heung-Yeol
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Abstract
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Background : This study was undertaken to estimate lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer of all sites and reproductive sites in females for health education of the general public as well as clinical cancer counselling.
Methods : These probabilities were calculated using the DEVCAN developed by the US National Cancer Institute based on the incidence rates of 1997-1998 provided by the Daegu Cancer Registry covering Daegu Metropolitan Area since January 1 1997 and mortality rates of the same period provided by the National Statistical Office.
Results : Lifetime risks of developing cancer estimated to be 20.9% in all sites, 3.28% in reproductive sites, 2.3% in cervix uteri, 0.3% corpus uteri & uterus unspecified, 0.6% in ovary, 0.2% in other reproductive sites.
Conclusion : Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer of all sites from 30 years of age to 60 and from 60 to 85 were 6.52% and 14.64%, respectively and those for reproductive cancer were 1.61%, 1.65% respectively. Some of these probabilities were unstable, especially in order age groups.
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KEYWORD
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Reproductive sites, Probabilities, Cancer
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